{"id":36824,"date":"2026-09-14T14:46:49","date_gmt":"2026-09-14T12:46:49","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/volbeast.com\/?p=36824"},"modified":"2026-09-14T14:49:59","modified_gmt":"2026-09-14T12:49:59","slug":"pet-tydnu-dolu","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/volbeast.com\/cs\/blog\/pet-tydnu-dolu\/","title":{"rendered":"P\u011bt t\u00fddn\u016f dol\u016f"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t
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Za n\u00e1mi je dal\u0161\u00ed t\u00fdden. Rozjel se slu\u0161n\u011b. V p\u00e1tek ho poh\u0159bilo CPI. Volatilitu vyfouklo jako z\u00e1ke\u0159n\u00fd klaun pou\u0165ov\u00fd bal\u00f3nek. Na sledovan\u00e9m \u00fa\u010dtu \u22122,24 %.<\/p>

Je to p\u00e1t\u00fd t\u00fdden v \u0159ad\u011b, kdy \u00fa\u010det pomalu kles\u00e1. Ne crash. Takov\u00e9 to otravn\u00e9 ukrajov\u00e1n\u00ed, u kter\u00e9ho si \u010dlov\u011bk \u0159\u00edk\u00e1, \u017ee u\u017e by to mohlo sta\u010dit. Nesta\u010dilo.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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Prost\u0159ed\u00ed, kter\u00e9 trh\u016fm nevad\u00ed ale \u00fa\u010dtu jo<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Nyn\u011bj\u0161\u00ed trh portfoliu nesv\u011bd\u010d\u00ed. Kalend\u00e1\u0159n\u00ed spready<\/a> v klesaj\u00edc\u00ed volatilit\u011b dost\u00e1vaj\u00ed na frak. Pomalu klesaj\u00edc\u00ed podklad neprosp\u00edv\u00e1 ani zbytku arzen\u00e1lu. Minule tohle prost\u0159ed\u00ed st\u00e1lo za t\u00e9m\u011b\u0159 nulov\u00fd srpen<\/a>. Te\u010f z toho leze s\u00e9rie.<\/p>

Takov\u00e1 obdob\u00ed se \u0161patn\u011b vysed\u00e1vaj\u00ed. Dojde\u0161 do bodu, kdy subjektivn\u011b pad\u00e1 v\u0161echno a za\u010dne\u0161 po\u010d\u00edtat, jestli ten \u010das a energie za to je\u0161t\u011b stoj\u00ed. Po takov\u00fdch kusech obvykle p\u0159ijde recovery. Obvykle. Mezit\u00edm je pr\u00e1ce jedin\u00e1: nevykrv\u00e1cet.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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Ru\u010dn\u00ed brzda<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Na to jsou limity portfolia. Ne ty, kter\u00e9 vymysl\u00ed\u0161 ve st\u0159edu odpoledne, kdy\u017e je \u00fa\u010det \u010derven\u00fd. Ty, kter\u00e9 zn\u00e1\u0161 dop\u0159edu: co je je\u0161t\u011b norm\u00e1ln\u00ed drawdown, co se d\u00e1 vysed\u011bt, kdy se zat\u00e1hne za brzdu.<\/p>

Letos jsem za ni tahal n\u011bkolikr\u00e1t. Nejd\u0159\u00edv u strategi\u00ed, kter\u00e9 za\u010daly kazit v\u00fdkon. Pak, kdy\u017e bylo v portfoliu moc v\u011bc\u00ed korelovan\u00fdch s trhem<\/a> jako celkem. Nakonec jsem se\u0159\u00edzl expozici na pokles volatility \u2014 tedy pr\u00e1v\u011b kalend\u00e1\u0159e. Ne proto, \u017ee by nefungovaly. Proto\u017ee jich tam bylo moc.<\/p>

Aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed verze portfolia jede asi m\u011bs\u00edc. Je\u0161t\u011b v n\u00ed doj\u00ed\u017ed\u011bj\u00ed obchody z p\u0159edchoz\u00ed. Na verdikt je brzy. Aktualizovan\u00fd backtest ale \u0159\u00edk\u00e1 slu\u0161n\u011b tot\u00e9\u017e co \u00fa\u010det: hor\u0161\u00ed m\u011bs\u00edc. Kazily to hlavn\u011b alokace do kalend\u00e1\u0159\u016f a EOM trade z konce srpna, kter\u00fd nevy\u0161el. Se\u0161lo se v\u00edc v\u011bt\u0161\u00edch pozic najednou. D\u0159\u00edv se to u t\u011bch kombinac\u00ed ned\u011blo. Neznamen\u00e1 to, \u017ee se to nestane. Sp\u00ed\u0161 po\u010d\u00edtej s\u00a0t\u00edm, \u017ee se to stane velmi brzy po spu\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed. P\u0159ikl\u00e1d\u00e1m i drawadown backtestu aktu\u00e1ln\u00ed verze portfolia. Schv\u00e1ln\u011b. Jestli uhodne\u0161, kdy jsem portfolio v\u00a0t\u00e9to verzi pustil na \u017eiv\u00fd \u00fa\u010det? \ud83d\ude00
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\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\"Drawdown\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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V re\u00e1lu po\u010d\u00edtej s hor\u0161\u00edm drawdownem<\/a>, ne\u017e uk\u00e1\u017ee test. A nepanika\u0159, kdy\u017e se na \u201ebacktestov\u00e9 dno\u201c pod\u00edv\u00e1\u0161 brzy po spu\u0161t\u011bn\u00ed nov\u00e9 verze. Test je mapa. Nen\u00ed to kontrakt.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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Ve st\u0159edu FOMC<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Dnes mo\u017en\u00e1 otev\u0159u speci\u00e1ln\u00ed kalend\u00e1\u0159, kter\u00fd um\u00ed \u017e\u00edt z n\u00e1r\u016fstu implikovan\u00e9 volatility p\u0159ed statementem. Pravidla jsem u\u017e jednou popsal<\/a>. Nen\u00ed to z\u00e1chrana p\u011bti \u010derven\u00fdch t\u00fddn\u016f. Je to jeden setup na jednu ud\u00e1lost. Kdy\u017e nebude cena d\u00e1vat smysl, neotev\u0159u ho. To taky um\u00ed b\u00fdt trade.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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Rozpracov\u00e1no<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Sezonalita VIXu a kalend\u00e1\u0159e. Po\u0159\u00e1d stejn\u00e1 ot\u00e1zka: vynechat n\u011bkter\u00e1 obdob\u00ed, nebo jen srazit v\u00e1hu. K tomu se vr\u00e1t\u00edm, a\u017e bude \u010das. P\u0159edev\u010d\u00edrem jsem musel ru\u010dn\u011b p\u0159eh\u00e1zet t\u0159i tuny kamen\u00ed na stavb\u011b, tak jsem celkem grogy.<\/p>

FOMC kalend\u00e1\u0159: bu\u010f ve st\u0159edu otev\u0159u podle pravidel, nebo nebude, kdy\u017e bude drah\u00fd.<\/p>

Dr\u017ete se. Recovery se nepl\u00e1nuje. Vysed\u00ed se. Ale nesm\u00ed ti p\u0159edt\u00edm rupnout c\u00e9vka ani \u00fa\u010det.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

T\u00fdden \u22122,24 %. CPI v p\u00e1tek vyfouklo volatilitu, kalend\u00e1\u0159e zase schyt\u00e1vaj\u00ed. Limity se nastavuj\u00ed p\u0159edem. Ve st\u0159edu FOMC.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":28131,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_surecart_dashboard_logo_width":"180px","_surecart_dashboard_show_logo":true,"_surecart_dashboard_navigation_orders":true,"_surecart_dashboard_navigation_invoices":true,"_surecart_dashboard_navigation_subscriptions":true,"_surecart_dashboard_navigation_downloads":true,"_surecart_dashboard_navigation_billing":true,"_surecart_dashboard_navigation_account":true,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[64,47,62],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-36824","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-denik-zakladatele","category-volbeast","category-vysledky"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/volbeast.com\/cs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36824","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/volbeast.com\/cs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/volbeast.com\/cs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/volbeast.com\/cs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/7"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/volbeast.com\/cs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=36824"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/volbeast.com\/cs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36824\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":36832,"href":"https:\/\/volbeast.com\/cs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36824\/revisions\/36832"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/volbeast.com\/cs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/28131"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/volbeast.com\/cs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=36824"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/volbeast.com\/cs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=36824"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/volbeast.com\/cs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=36824"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}