{"id":36806,"date":"2026-08-31T15:07:14","date_gmt":"2026-08-31T13:07:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/volbeast.com\/?p=36806"},"modified":"2026-08-31T15:08:27","modified_gmt":"2026-08-31T13:08:27","slug":"srpen-vratil-co-srpen-dal","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/volbeast.com\/cs\/blog\/srpen-vratil-co-srpen-dal\/","title":{"rendered":"Srpen vr\u00e1til, co srpen dal"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t
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Srpen za\u010dal, jako kdy\u017e se \u00fa\u010det kone\u010dn\u011b nadechne. Kon\u010d\u00ed, jako kdy\u017e mu n\u011bkdo ten vzduch zase vypust\u00ed hadi\u010dkou. Za cel\u00fd m\u011bs\u00edc se \u010d\u00edslo na \u00fa\u010dtu skoro nehnulo. Ne proto, \u017ee by se nic ned\u011blo. Proto\u017ee druh\u00e1 p\u016flka sebrala to, co prvn\u00ed postavila.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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Dva t\u00fddny skoro bez pohybu<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Posledn\u00edch \u010dtrn\u00e1ct dn\u00ed se trh v regul\u00e9rn\u00ed seanci tv\u00e1\u0159il, \u017ee m\u00e1 dovolenou. \u017d\u00e1dn\u00fd po\u0159\u00e1dn\u00fd pohyb, \u017e\u00e1dn\u00e1 slu\u0161n\u00e1 volatilita, jen pomal\u00e9 odevzd\u00e1v\u00e1n\u00ed pr\u00e9mi\u00ed u v\u011bc\u00ed, kter\u00e9 pohyb pot\u0159ebuj\u00ed. Long Straddle, double calendar, call spread \u2014 v\u0161echno, co chce, aby se n\u011bco stalo. Nestalo se. Tak to odevzdalo.<\/p>

Da\u0159ilo se Iron Condor\u016fm a Iron Fly<\/a>. Tedy da\u0159ilo se jim na pom\u011bry tohohle re\u017eimu: vyd\u011blaly, ale p\u00e1d jen p\u0159ibrzdily. Nen\u00ed to z\u00e1chrana. Je to airbag, kter\u00fd t\u011b nenech\u00e1 prolet\u011bt \u010deln\u00edm sklem, ale auto stejn\u011b skon\u010d\u00ed ve svodidlech. Na grafu je to vid\u011bt bez koment\u00e1\u0159e. Limetkov\u00e1 dva pruhy naho\u0159e. Pod nimi \u010derven\u00e1 fronta. Nejdel\u0161\u00ed je Long Straddle<\/a>. P\u0159esn\u011b ta strategie, kter\u00e1 um\u00ed ud\u011blat m\u011bs\u00edc \u2014 a kter\u00e1 v tomhle typu trhu vypad\u00e1, jako bys platil n\u00e1jem za pr\u00e1zdn\u00fd byt.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

\n\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\"P\u0159\u00edr\u016fstky\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Minule jsem psal<\/a>, \u017ee klesaj\u00edc\u00ed trh bez rostouc\u00edho VIXu m\u00e9mu portfoliu nesv\u011bd\u010d\u00ed. Tenhle d\u00edl je pokra\u010dov\u00e1n\u00ed stejn\u00e9 v\u011bty, jen bez klesaj\u00edc\u00edho trhu. Te\u010f u\u017e ani nekles\u00e1. Stoj\u00ed. A stoj\u00edc\u00ed trh je pro \u010d\u00e1st portfolia dra\u017e\u0161\u00ed ne\u017e velk\u00fd \u010derven\u00fd den, proto\u017ee ten aspo\u0148 n\u011bco zaplat\u00ed.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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Warsh \u0159ekl v\u011btu a trh se \u0161kubnul<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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V p\u00e1tek promluvil Warsh z Fedu a najednou bylo ve h\u0159e zase i zvy\u0161ov\u00e1n\u00ed sazeb<\/a>. Trhy se trochu hnuly. Ne proto, \u017ee by n\u011bkdo pochopil makro. Proto\u017ee klid na trz\u00edch m\u00e1 jednu otravnou vlastnost: vypad\u00e1 v\u011b\u010dn\u011b, dokud n\u011bkdo v p\u00e1tek ne\u0159ekne v\u011btu, kter\u00e1 se nevejde do konsenzu. Jestli to byl za\u010d\u00e1tek z\u00e1\u0159ijov\u00e9 volatility, nebo jen \u0161kytnut\u00ed, uvid\u00edme. Podobn\u00fd re\u017eim \u201enic se ned\u011bje\u201c obvykle netrv\u00e1 m\u011bs\u00edce. Obvykle. Trh slovo obvykle nesly\u0161el.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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Jeden trade mimo pl\u00e1n<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Po del\u0161\u00ed dob\u011b jsem otev\u0159el i obchod mimo backtestovan\u00fd pl\u00e1n<\/a>. Earnings NVDA p\u0159es SMCI. V hlav\u011b to vypadalo slu\u0161n\u011b. Na \u00fa\u010dtu m\u00e9n\u011b. Graf \u0159\u00edk\u00e1 \u22120,71 %. Trh mi t\u00edm akor\u00e1t p\u0159ipomn\u011bl hierarchii: on je p\u00e1n, j\u00e1 jsem ten, kdo ob\u010das pot\u0159ebuje dok\u00e1zat, \u017ee je\u0161t\u011b um\u00ed kliknout ru\u010dn\u011b. Um\u00edm. \u0160koda, \u017ee pr\u00e1v\u011b tohle nen\u00ed dovednost, kterou chci tr\u00e9novat. Mimo pl\u00e1n to nen\u00ed extra edge. Je to extra zp\u016fsob, jak k pl\u00e1nu p\u0159ilepit ztr\u00e1tu, kter\u00e1 s n\u00edm nem\u011bla nic spole\u010dn\u00e9ho.<\/p>

Pl\u00e1n dr\u017e\u00edm. V\u00fdjimka byla jedna a sta\u010dila.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t

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Rozpracov\u00e1no<\/h2>\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t
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Sezonalita VIXu<\/a> a kalend\u00e1\u0159e. Po\u0159\u00e1d testuju, jestli n\u011bkter\u00e1 obdob\u00ed u t\u011bch spread\u016f rad\u0161i vynechat. K t\u00e9matu se vr\u00e1t\u00edm tady na blogu a zav\u0159u ho \u2014 ne po dal\u0161\u00edm zelen\u00e9m t\u00fddnu, ale a\u017e budu m\u00edt z toho testu n\u011bco, co unese i ve\u0159ejn\u00fd text.<\/p>

Dr\u017ete se. A pokud v\u00e1m tenhle trh taky nic ned\u00e1v\u00e1, aspo\u0148 v\u00edte, \u017ee nejste sami. Nuda na indexu nen\u00ed nuda na \u00fa\u010dtu. Na \u00fa\u010dtu je to \u010dasto polo\u017eka.<\/p>\t\t\t\t\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t\t\t<\/div>\n\t\t","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Srpen na \u00fa\u010dtu skoro na nule. Bez pohybu um\u00edral Long Straddle, Condory jen brzdily p\u00e1d. Warsh trh trochu probudil. Uvid\u00edme, jestli z\u00e1\u0159\u00ed vr\u00e1t\u00ed volatilitu.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":28131,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_surecart_dashboard_logo_width":"180px","_surecart_dashboard_show_logo":true,"_surecart_dashboard_navigation_orders":true,"_surecart_dashboard_navigation_invoices":true,"_surecart_dashboard_navigation_subscriptions":true,"_surecart_dashboard_navigation_downloads":true,"_surecart_dashboard_navigation_billing":true,"_surecart_dashboard_navigation_account":true,"site-sidebar-layout":"default","site-content-layout":"","ast-site-content-layout":"default","site-content-style":"default","site-sidebar-style":"default","ast-global-header-display":"","ast-banner-title-visibility":"","ast-main-header-display":"","ast-hfb-above-header-display":"","ast-hfb-below-header-display":"","ast-hfb-mobile-header-display":"","site-post-title":"","ast-breadcrumbs-content":"","ast-featured-img":"","footer-sml-layout":"","ast-disable-related-posts":"","theme-transparent-header-meta":"","adv-header-id-meta":"","stick-header-meta":"","header-above-stick-meta":"","header-main-stick-meta":"","header-below-stick-meta":"","astra-migrate-meta-layouts":"set","ast-page-background-enabled":"default","ast-page-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"ast-content-background-meta":{"desktop":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"tablet":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""},"mobile":{"background-color":"var(--ast-global-color-5)","background-image":"","background-repeat":"repeat","background-position":"center center","background-size":"auto","background-attachment":"scroll","background-type":"","background-media":"","overlay-type":"","overlay-color":"","overlay-opacity":"","overlay-gradient":""}},"footnotes":""},"categories":[64,47,62],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-36806","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-denik-zakladatele","category-volbeast","category-vysledky"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/volbeast.com\/cs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36806","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/volbeast.com\/cs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/volbeast.com\/cs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/volbeast.com\/cs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/7"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/volbeast.com\/cs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=36806"}],"version-history":[{"count":4,"href":"https:\/\/volbeast.com\/cs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36806\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":36810,"href":"https:\/\/volbeast.com\/cs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/36806\/revisions\/36810"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/volbeast.com\/cs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/28131"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/volbeast.com\/cs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=36806"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/volbeast.com\/cs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=36806"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/volbeast.com\/cs\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=36806"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}